So...What's the Big Deal?
by Bruce Tonn
Infused in Three3’s commitment to fostering equitable, sustainable futures are concerns not only for improving the lives of current generations but also the lives of future generations. To achieve this mission requires forward thinking and a futures-orientation. The field of futures studies exists to help humanity be more futures-oriented. Unfortunately, the field is often misunderstood. The most common misperception is that the job of futurists is to predict THE future, often with respect to technology, a task at which they fail horribly and comically more often than not. This misperception of the value and purpose of futures studies has tragic implications for humanity because the real value of futures studies is to assist humanity navigate around disastrous futures and create futures that are just, verdant, and peaceful.
Though the field of futures studies dates back to at least the 1960s, it is still a relatively new academic field. As such, there are many gaps in the knowledge base of futures studies and several research topics that have received virtually no serious attention. The balance of this piece envisions a field of future studies is much broader and deeper than is commonly appreciated. Following is a six-component framework that describes the field, explains why each component is important, and details the progress needed in each area to move humanity towards being more futures-oriented. This framework is intended not only to help organize thoughts about the field but also to help organize a global research initiative designed to further the field for the benefit of humanity.
The first component is philosophical and ethical. There are two fundamental questions: Why should present generations care about future generations? And, what are our obligations to future generations? Defensible and intuitively satisfying answers are needed to these questions to lay an explicit foundation for proactive policies to meet obligations to future generations and deal with those who argue that current generations have no obligations to future generations and, therefore, ought not devote any of society’s resources for their benefit. Futures-orientedness is not completely foreign to human civilization, as some Native American tribes extended their perspectives seven generations into the future. Much has been written on these questions over the past several decades but the literature typically fails to make clear distinctions between the reasons why we should care about future generations with what our obligations might be to them. Additionally, the number and quality of well-stated and defensible obligations to future generations is sparse and not reflective of challenges presented by today’s science and potentially-catastrophic global environmental problems. Thus, research is needed to improve the philosophical arguments about why current generations should care about future generations and what our obligations are to our descendants.
The second component relates to decision-making. Tools are needed to assist today’s decision makers in making decisions to benefit future generations. The most widely-used public policy decision analysis tools fall within the rubric of cost-benefit analysis, which explicitly discount future benefits and require all inputs to be monetized. These tools are clearly inadequate to address decisions whose benefits may extend for extremely long periods of time, deal with inputs that cannot (and maybe ethically ought not) be monetized, and have very high levels of uncertainty. Research is needed to develop better tools to support decisions that encompass long-time frames.
The third area of concern is ourselves. Few individuals are comfortable thinking about the future because, in part, it is cognitively challenging to formulate images of the future that extend even only a few years into the future. How can society have substantive discussions about the long-term impacts of climate change, for example, if most people are simply unable to and many times feel great anxiety in being forced to think beyond now? Secondly, there are apparently few social norms that encourage or incentivize individuals to think beyond themselves. Our society is highly competitive. Our political institutions and market-based processes are seemingly hardwired to manage the intense real-time, current generations’ fight for wealth and recognition. Why should anybody sacrifice anything for future generations when sacrificing for today’s public good is only done so grudgingly? We believe that people can be trained to think more proactively about the future and it is certainly also the case, as stated by the eminent futurist Wendell Bell, that: “The present generation’s caring and sacrificing for future generations benefits not only future generations but also itself.” How best to train people and to imbue them with a desire to care for future generations are open and challenging research questions.
The fourth requirement is to develop new and/or evolve existing institutions that are more futures-oriented. These institutions must be comfortable with being and motivated to be futures-oriented. They need to be able make such decisions, and then be able implement and administer programs over very long periods of time. In the United States today, there are no institutions (that I am aware of) whose responsibility explicitly demands them consider our obligations to future generations. Short electoral cycles and the demands of quarterly reports drive our political and business institutions towards myopia. Few public sector institutions even feel the responsibility to think long-term. We desperately need new ideas about how to foster futures-orientedness in our leading institutions.
The fifth component is research to improve methods used to study potential futures. The two most common methods used to study potential futures are trend assessment and scenarios. Scenarios have been used for several decades, initially developed for the military, then adopted by the private sector and now beginning to be used by governments and others responsible for public policy. There are many organizations around the country that do trends assessments and develop scenarios, such as the Institute for Alternative Futures and the Institute for the Future. However, and inexplicably, little rigorous quantitative research has been conducted about scenarios and other tools employed by futurists. We do not know, for example, how frequently scenarios impact decision making and if so, whether they were used properly. We even lack a theoretical foundation to judge if they had positive or negative impacts on decisions. Additionally, other important topics in the broad area of futures studies also require rigorous research, such as the topic of unintended consequences of, say, energy and environmental decisions, whether scenarios informed them or not. Thus, fundamental research is needed on these methods and topics used to help people think more clearly about futures.
The sixth component relates to the practice of futures studies. As futures studies relate to the Three3’s mission and to the missions of other organizations around the world that focus on poverty, health, and the environment, we believe there is an opportunity to support more and better assessments of trends and development of scenarios in areas related to policy area. It is also recommended that a global repository for trend assessments and scenarios be developed. The repository would be open to all to help improve organizational strategies and programs, and could be a useful resource for the research discussed under the fifth component.
In summary, the big idea is for a global, transdisciplinary research initiative guided by this framework to help humanity better think, plan, address and prepare for the future. Support is needed for basic and applied research and workshops and other types of meetings should be awarded to fill gaps and achieve advancements in these areas: reasons why we should care about future generations and what our obligations are to future generations; methods to assist very long-term decision making under great uncertainties; approaches for helping people better think about futures and appreciate the personal benefits of caring about future generations; new ideas for improving the ability of leading institutions to be more futures-oriented; and projects to evaluate and build better theory around the use of scenarios and in dealing with the unintended consequences of decisions that have long-term impacts. It is also recommended that more support be provided for the assessment of trends and the development of scenarios that are related to poverty, health and the environment.
Please visit Futures Thoughts again! Periodically, additional pieces will be posted that explain in more detail the six component framework presented above and other Futures Thoughts!
Though the field of futures studies dates back to at least the 1960s, it is still a relatively new academic field. As such, there are many gaps in the knowledge base of futures studies and several research topics that have received virtually no serious attention. The balance of this piece envisions a field of future studies is much broader and deeper than is commonly appreciated. Following is a six-component framework that describes the field, explains why each component is important, and details the progress needed in each area to move humanity towards being more futures-oriented. This framework is intended not only to help organize thoughts about the field but also to help organize a global research initiative designed to further the field for the benefit of humanity.
The first component is philosophical and ethical. There are two fundamental questions: Why should present generations care about future generations? And, what are our obligations to future generations? Defensible and intuitively satisfying answers are needed to these questions to lay an explicit foundation for proactive policies to meet obligations to future generations and deal with those who argue that current generations have no obligations to future generations and, therefore, ought not devote any of society’s resources for their benefit. Futures-orientedness is not completely foreign to human civilization, as some Native American tribes extended their perspectives seven generations into the future. Much has been written on these questions over the past several decades but the literature typically fails to make clear distinctions between the reasons why we should care about future generations with what our obligations might be to them. Additionally, the number and quality of well-stated and defensible obligations to future generations is sparse and not reflective of challenges presented by today’s science and potentially-catastrophic global environmental problems. Thus, research is needed to improve the philosophical arguments about why current generations should care about future generations and what our obligations are to our descendants.
The second component relates to decision-making. Tools are needed to assist today’s decision makers in making decisions to benefit future generations. The most widely-used public policy decision analysis tools fall within the rubric of cost-benefit analysis, which explicitly discount future benefits and require all inputs to be monetized. These tools are clearly inadequate to address decisions whose benefits may extend for extremely long periods of time, deal with inputs that cannot (and maybe ethically ought not) be monetized, and have very high levels of uncertainty. Research is needed to develop better tools to support decisions that encompass long-time frames.
The third area of concern is ourselves. Few individuals are comfortable thinking about the future because, in part, it is cognitively challenging to formulate images of the future that extend even only a few years into the future. How can society have substantive discussions about the long-term impacts of climate change, for example, if most people are simply unable to and many times feel great anxiety in being forced to think beyond now? Secondly, there are apparently few social norms that encourage or incentivize individuals to think beyond themselves. Our society is highly competitive. Our political institutions and market-based processes are seemingly hardwired to manage the intense real-time, current generations’ fight for wealth and recognition. Why should anybody sacrifice anything for future generations when sacrificing for today’s public good is only done so grudgingly? We believe that people can be trained to think more proactively about the future and it is certainly also the case, as stated by the eminent futurist Wendell Bell, that: “The present generation’s caring and sacrificing for future generations benefits not only future generations but also itself.” How best to train people and to imbue them with a desire to care for future generations are open and challenging research questions.
The fourth requirement is to develop new and/or evolve existing institutions that are more futures-oriented. These institutions must be comfortable with being and motivated to be futures-oriented. They need to be able make such decisions, and then be able implement and administer programs over very long periods of time. In the United States today, there are no institutions (that I am aware of) whose responsibility explicitly demands them consider our obligations to future generations. Short electoral cycles and the demands of quarterly reports drive our political and business institutions towards myopia. Few public sector institutions even feel the responsibility to think long-term. We desperately need new ideas about how to foster futures-orientedness in our leading institutions.
The fifth component is research to improve methods used to study potential futures. The two most common methods used to study potential futures are trend assessment and scenarios. Scenarios have been used for several decades, initially developed for the military, then adopted by the private sector and now beginning to be used by governments and others responsible for public policy. There are many organizations around the country that do trends assessments and develop scenarios, such as the Institute for Alternative Futures and the Institute for the Future. However, and inexplicably, little rigorous quantitative research has been conducted about scenarios and other tools employed by futurists. We do not know, for example, how frequently scenarios impact decision making and if so, whether they were used properly. We even lack a theoretical foundation to judge if they had positive or negative impacts on decisions. Additionally, other important topics in the broad area of futures studies also require rigorous research, such as the topic of unintended consequences of, say, energy and environmental decisions, whether scenarios informed them or not. Thus, fundamental research is needed on these methods and topics used to help people think more clearly about futures.
The sixth component relates to the practice of futures studies. As futures studies relate to the Three3’s mission and to the missions of other organizations around the world that focus on poverty, health, and the environment, we believe there is an opportunity to support more and better assessments of trends and development of scenarios in areas related to policy area. It is also recommended that a global repository for trend assessments and scenarios be developed. The repository would be open to all to help improve organizational strategies and programs, and could be a useful resource for the research discussed under the fifth component.
In summary, the big idea is for a global, transdisciplinary research initiative guided by this framework to help humanity better think, plan, address and prepare for the future. Support is needed for basic and applied research and workshops and other types of meetings should be awarded to fill gaps and achieve advancements in these areas: reasons why we should care about future generations and what our obligations are to future generations; methods to assist very long-term decision making under great uncertainties; approaches for helping people better think about futures and appreciate the personal benefits of caring about future generations; new ideas for improving the ability of leading institutions to be more futures-oriented; and projects to evaluate and build better theory around the use of scenarios and in dealing with the unintended consequences of decisions that have long-term impacts. It is also recommended that more support be provided for the assessment of trends and the development of scenarios that are related to poverty, health and the environment.
Please visit Futures Thoughts again! Periodically, additional pieces will be posted that explain in more detail the six component framework presented above and other Futures Thoughts!
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